By: Global Forex Trading
Price: 1.0232
| Resistance: | 1.0275 | 1.0300 | 1.0331 | 1.0362 |
| Support: | 1.0203 | 1.0186 | 1.0154 | 1.0126 |
| Bias: | I still suspect that the 1.0203-14 area should support for a second recovery else see 1.0126 min |
| Daily Bullish: | The break below 1.0261 provided the losses back to 1.0232 and just below to 1.0214. I still see the 1.0203-14 area as modestly strong support and while this holds the risk still does look higher. Back above 1.0275 would provide the trigger for a move back through 1.0300 and probably 1.0331 en route 103.53-72 again. At this point I feel it will cap for additional losses. Only break provides a stronger bullish signal for 1.0420 and 1.0467-87 at least. |
| MT Bullish: | 27th May: I still have the expectation of seeing a move down to the 1.0134 level at least and possibly just below but from there the risk will be back higher again. An earlier break above 1.0402 confirms. |
| Daily Bearish: | I feel we are still probably in a correction that could still see a test of 1.0353-72. While this is possible the 1.0203-14 area should support. Thus only a break below the 1.0200 level would imply direct follow-through lower to 1.0126-34 at least and at which point we need be more cautious. We should also note supports around 1.0073-1.0108. |
| MT Bearish: | 22nd May: We are already close to the 1.0220 target and with this direct test I suspect there is now a greater chance of seeing the 1.0134 support. Also note the next area at 0.9986-1.0018 which should be the max we see. |
ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS
27th May
The pullback to the 1.0353 high came in 3 waves and thus we face the possibility of a complex correction. Thus we need to allow for a flat correction back to 1.0232 and possibly an expanded flat to 1.0203 both of which could still see a move tot eh 41.4% retracement in Wave iv at 1.0372.
Overall this would have potential to the 50% retracement in Wave -x- at 1.0134.
Also note a 76.4% projection in a direct move lower to 1.0073.
Ian Copsey
Global Forex Trading
http://www.gftforex.com
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FOREX : Foreign Exchange Market
FOREX is a word play on the term Foreign Exchange Market. It is a market for buying and selling of currencies from all over the world. Certainly, such transactions are bound to be voluminous. It is just an estimate that there are about transactions of $1.5 trillion USD on a daily basis in the FOREX. Now just compare this with the paltry $300 billion USD a day transactions for the US Treasury Bond and the $100 billion a day transactions for the US Stock Exchange.
The FOREX came into existence in 1971 when the fixed currency exchanges were abolished. Currencies no longer had fixed values after that; on the contrary, their rates (mostly taken in comparison with the USD) were fluctuating, and changed on a daily basis. Throughout the seventies and the eighties the FOREX grew steadily, showing more advancement in the later years. The market has stupendously grown from $70 billion USD a day to the staggering amount that it transacts today on a daily basis.
There are actually about five thousand trading institutions in the FOREX. These include international banks, central government banks such as the US Federal Reserve, and commercial companies and brokers for all types of foreign currency exchange. The best thing that shows the unbiased nature of the FOREX market is that it has no fixed headquarters anywhere – it operates primarily from all major cities like New York, Tokyo, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris, Frankfurt, etc. One can even use the telephone or the internet to make the transactions. The major businesses at the FOREX are the buying and selling of products in other countries. Several transactions are also conducted from the currency brokers or traders who stand to make small profits with the daily fluctuations in the market.
Most of the FOREX business is centered on big banks and financial institutions, but it doesn’t mean that the FOREX is inaccessible to small investors. The recent changes in the financial regulations have effectuated this accessibility. Earlier, a minimum transaction size was required to conduct business with the FOREX. But the current rules have made it possible to break large inter-bank units into smaller bits. Each bit is worth as less as $100,000. This makes it possible to each individual investor through loans that are extended for trading, known as leverage. The ratio to control the lots is 100:1. This means, every $1000 USD will allow one to control $100,000 on the FOREX.
The benefits of trading with the FOREX are mentioned below:-
(1) Liquidity of Investments – As the FOREX is a huge market, the funds have a very high degree of liquidity. This is because of the presence of the international banks who provide their bids and carry out a large number of transactions on a daily basis. Therefore, there is always a buyer or seller for any type of currency.
(2) Highest Degree of Accessibility – The FOREX is open 24 hours a day for 5 days a week. Every Monday morning the exchange opens at Australian Standard Time and closes on Friday afternoon at New York time. Greater accessibility is provided because the transactions can be conducted from the person’s home or office.
(3) Open Market – At the FOREX, there are no secrets. All the fluctuations that occur in the market are made accessible to everyone at the same time. There is no insider trading in the FOREX.
(4) No Commission – There is no hassle of paying commission to the brokers in the FOREX. Here the brokers earn by setting up a difference between the buying price and the selling price of a currency, which is known as a spread.
It must be understood by now that for the FOREX to work effectively, the currencies must always be traded in pairs. For instance, the Japanese yen must be traded against the euro. When one kind of currency is sold, there should be another to be bought in its stead.
The profit happens because there is always mobility between the different currencies. Even if there is a miniscule change in the exchange rate, then it could mean substantial changes in the profits due to the large amount of money involved in the transactions. People are thronging to the FOREX and not any other institution due to the trust that they have in it. To add to the advantage, the market is absolutely well-advanced and uses sophisticated software for dealing out its transactions.
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