Today's Market Outlook

EURUSD

Retraced over 61.8% of the 1.6020/1.5285 decline, to reach 1.5814/18 highs on 22/27 May, ahead of the latest decline. Break below 1.5693, 22 May correction low, completed a multi-day double top. Next targets at 1.5595/66 have also been cleared exceeded, with market attempting at 1.5520. Break here will open 1.5500/1.5486, possibly 1.5546/20, while 1.5608/60 zone expected to hold the upside.

Res: 1.5608, 1.5638, 1.5660, 1.5695
Sup: 1.5520, 1.5502, 1.5486, 1.5546

GBPUSD

Extended the bounce from 1.9361, 14 May low, following 2.0029/1.9361 decline, peaking at 1.9848/49 on 22/23 May. A period of choppy action has given way to a retreat to 1.9672 so far, with the risk seen is for a lower top to trigger fresh weakness towards 1.9623/11, possibly accelerating on a break.

Res: 1.9820, 1.9852, 1.9880, 1.9898
Sup: 1.9703, 1.9672, 1.9662, 1.9645

USDJPY

Has been range-bound after reaching a high of 105.70, 3-month high on 02 May. The 102.73/57 extreme lows seen since then on 12/22 May have potential to mark a higher double bottom within the medium-term uptrend for a renewed rise through 105.70. Next target stands at 106.33/60 zone, with possible break higher to expose 107.22/41. Correction lower on overbought hourlies, likely to leave a higher low 104.35 area.

Res: 105.39, 105.58, 105.70, 106.00
Sup: 105.00, 104.77, 104.45, 104.35

USDCHF

Extended losses from 1.0625, 08 May recovery high, to reach 1.0216 last Friday, ahead of latest recovery. Wednesday's clearance of 1.0355 completed a short-term base, with 1.0425 being met ahead of a dip back toward 1.0355. Fresh strength has emerged form there, targeting1.0469/99, possibly 1.0535/58 and 1.0589/1.0601 on a break. Downside, 1.0365/55 expected to contain dips.

Res: 1.0486, 1.0500, 1.0535, 1.0558
Sup: 1.0425, 1.0405, 1.0388, 1.0365

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The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

FOREX : Foreign Exchange Market

FOREX is a word play on the term Foreign Exchange Market. It is a market for buying and selling of currencies from all over the world. Certainly, such transactions are bound to be voluminous. It is just an estimate that there are about transactions of $1.5 trillion USD on a daily basis in the FOREX. Now just compare this with the paltry $300 billion USD a day transactions for the US Treasury Bond and the $100 billion a day transactions for the US Stock Exchange.

The FOREX came into existence in 1971 when the fixed currency exchanges were abolished. Currencies no longer had fixed values after that; on the contrary, their rates (mostly taken in comparison with the USD) were fluctuating, and changed on a daily basis. Throughout the seventies and the eighties the FOREX grew steadily, showing more advancement in the later years. The market has stupendously grown from $70 billion USD a day to the staggering amount that it transacts today on a daily basis.

There are actually about five thousand trading institutions in the FOREX. These include international banks, central government banks such as the US Federal Reserve, and commercial companies and brokers for all types of foreign currency exchange. The best thing that shows the unbiased nature of the FOREX market is that it has no fixed headquarters anywhere – it operates primarily from all major cities like New York, Tokyo, London, Hong Kong, Singapore, Paris, Frankfurt, etc. One can even use the telephone or the internet to make the transactions. The major businesses at the FOREX are the buying and selling of products in other countries. Several transactions are also conducted from the currency brokers or traders who stand to make small profits with the daily fluctuations in the market.

Most of the FOREX business is centered on big banks and financial institutions, but it doesn’t mean that the FOREX is inaccessible to small investors. The recent changes in the financial regulations have effectuated this accessibility. Earlier, a minimum transaction size was required to conduct business with the FOREX. But the current rules have made it possible to break large inter-bank units into smaller bits. Each bit is worth as less as $100,000. This makes it possible to each individual investor through loans that are extended for trading, known as leverage. The ratio to control the lots is 100:1. This means, every $1000 USD will allow one to control $100,000 on the FOREX.

The benefits of trading with the FOREX are mentioned below:-

(1) Liquidity of Investments – As the FOREX is a huge market, the funds have a very high degree of liquidity. This is because of the presence of the international banks who provide their bids and carry out a large number of transactions on a daily basis. Therefore, there is always a buyer or seller for any type of currency.

(2) Highest Degree of Accessibility – The FOREX is open 24 hours a day for 5 days a week. Every Monday morning the exchange opens at Australian Standard Time and closes on Friday afternoon at New York time. Greater accessibility is provided because the transactions can be conducted from the person’s home or office.

(3) Open Market – At the FOREX, there are no secrets. All the fluctuations that occur in the market are made accessible to everyone at the same time. There is no insider trading in the FOREX.

(4) No Commission – There is no hassle of paying commission to the brokers in the FOREX. Here the brokers earn by setting up a difference between the buying price and the selling price of a currency, which is known as a spread.

It must be understood by now that for the FOREX to work effectively, the currencies must always be traded in pairs. For instance, the Japanese yen must be traded against the euro. When one kind of currency is sold, there should be another to be bought in its stead.

The profit happens because there is always mobility between the different currencies. Even if there is a miniscule change in the exchange rate, then it could mean substantial changes in the profits due to the large amount of money involved in the transactions. People are thronging to the FOREX and not any other institution due to the trust that they have in it. To add to the advantage, the market is absolutely well-advanced and uses sophisticated software for dealing out its transactions.

FOREX-DD : Forex Daily Analysis