US Dollar Spike is a Trap
The US dollar spike does nothing to change to change the bearish bias. As long as EURUSD 1.5283 is intact, our bias is dollar bearish.
EUR/USD
The market threw a curveball yesterday. The EURUSD broke below 1.5461 but the larger bullish bias is still valid as long as price is above 1.5283. The decline from 1.5817 is relabeled as a W-X-Y (complex) correction. The minimum bullish objective is one pip above 1.5817. "Even if a larger more complex correction is unfolding from 1.6018 (such as a flat or a triangle), price is still expected to exceed 1.5817."
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.5283, target above 1.5817
USD/JPY
The spike through 105.70 satisfies minimum expectations for wave Z. The short term USDJPY pattern strongly indicates that a top is in place (at least temporarily), so a bearish bias is warranted against 105.86.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 105.86, target TBD
GBP/USD
Similar to the EURUSD, the GBPUSD broke to multi-day lows yesterday but the larger bullish bias is intact as long as price is above 1.9362. Today’s low is at the confluence of the 78.6% of 1.9362-1.9850 / former resisting trendline (now support). Look for a low near current price.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against 1.9362, target above 1.9850
USD/CHF
There is little doubt that the advance from .9647 is corrective because a triangle separates the two legs. The only question is whether or not the rally from .9647 is a complete 3 wave rally or just the first wave of a larger more complex correction. Regardless, a bearish bias is warranted against 1.0527.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.0527, target TBD
USD/CAD
The USDCAD is working higher from the 78.6% of .9710-1.0324 at .9841. The push through .9997 is evidence that a low is in place. Risk can now be moved to .9823. Remember, the minimum objective is above 1.0324. The alternate (in red) is a triangle, so think about taking some longs off of the table near 1.0150/1.02. The rally from .9818 would be wave D of the triangle (to be followed by wave E lower and then a bullish breakout).
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9967, target above 1.0324
AUD/USD
The AUDUSD is rallying as expected. Risk can be move to .9486. The advance from .8952 is likely the final leg of a diagonal that will lead to the major top mentioned in the longer term chart. "The rally from .8952 is wave C of a large 5th wave diagonal that could extend to a measured objective just below 1.00 in coming weeks (.9936)." Support has held at the trendline near .9500. A bullish bias is warranted against .9290 although price ideally remains above .9500.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9486, target .9936
NZD/USD
From a price structure point of view, the decline since the March top at .8215 has been choppy and corrective. The drop counts well as a double flat (this is a complex correction). Moreover, the legs of the decline are roughly equal (a common characteristic among corrections). The leg up from .7536 is the closest thing to an impulse that the NZDUSD has shown since the March top. As such, a bullish bias is warranted against .7536 (ideally price remains above .7767) and the target is above .8215.
STRATEGY: Bullish, against .7536, target above .8215
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